Prediction Model Of Project Dispute Negotiation Outcomes Based On GNBS Model And Behavioral Decision Theory

Project dispute occurs frequently. If the equilibrium point is not reached during the stage of negotiation between the owner and the contractor, escalating to the arbitration and legislation, the transaction cost will be huge. If the bargaining power of the negotiating parties and the equilibrium point can be figured out for consideration of the parties, the process of reaching the equilibrium point will be shortened and the escalation of the dispute will be avoided, thus the dispute resolution cost will be reduced.Through the literature analysis and expert interview, 12 influencing factors of bargaining power of project dispute negotiation are identified. The influence of attitude toward future cooperation,opportunity of future cooperation and negotiating tactics are the biggest three. The smallest one is the influence of eagerness to solve the dispute. Therefore, the future cooperation, negotiating tactics should be emphasized during negotiation in order to increase the bargaining power.Meanwhile, the influencing factors of contractor and owner's base price are summarized, of which level of detail in the contract, evidences and project practices and cooperation relation coincide with the influencing factors of bargaining power. The deviation rate of the project dispute negotiation equilibrium prediction model based on GNBS model is around 1%, which shows it is effective. Correlation analysis is performed between the prediction deviation rate and deviation factors. The results show that culture background, the difficulty of collecting the evidence, the sufficiency of negotiating time and stability are positively correlated with deviation rate, and the gap between contractor's claiming price and base price are negatively correlated with deviation rate.The project dispute negotiation equilibrium prediction model based on GNBS model is a useful tool for the negotiating parties, and it helps them estimate their own bargaining power correctively, look at the negotiating outcome objectively, avoid the irrational litigation and high transaction cost.