Study On The Nonlinear Relationship Between The International Intourism And The Economic Growth Of China

After the Second World War, as the economic growth in some developed countries recovery, the world tourism developed rapidly. After thirty years of rapid development , the tourism of China have a tour of the world's major and the international tourism have been keeping a stable growth. According to the studies of foreign and domestic scholars, there are two views about the international tourism affecting economic growth, which is positive or negative. So the relationship between the international tourism and economic growth has always been a controversial topic, the research on it has still no certainty. In this paper, we use the dynamic panel threshold regression theory to research the nonlinear relationship between the international tourism and economic growth, in order to know how the international tourism have an effect on the economic growth.Firstly, this paper describes the POLS and the instrumental variable estimation of the dynamic panel threshold model, and the steps of the bootstrap in the test of the threshold effect. Then based on the panel data of thirty provinces of China between 1987 and 2009, according to some theory of economic growth and the theory of the dynamic panel threshold regression, we establish appropriate model in this paper. We choose four the threshold variables and eight controlled variable in this model. Finally, we use these four threshold variables to have an empirical research on the nonlinear relationship between the international tourism and economic growth, during our research we use instrumental variable estimation to correct for endogeneity, to enhance the results'effectiveness and consistency.The main results of this study include: (1) When we choose the growth of the tourist arrival as the threshold variable, the relationship between the international tourism and economic growth doesn't have the threshold effect. (2) When we choose the growth of the tourism receipts, tourism receipts as a share of GDP and tourism receipts as a share of exports as the threshold variables, the relationship between the international tourism and economic growth have the threshold effect. (3) As the growth of the tourism receipts between 40.833% and 43.836%, tourism receipts as a share of GDP between 0.977% and 1.231%, tourism receipts as a share of exports between 12.268% and 15.054%, the international tourism can a positive effect on economic growth obviously. (4) As the growth of the tourism receipts is more than 43.836%, the international tourism can improve the economic growth unobviously. When tourism receipts as a share of GDP is more than 1.231% and tourism receipts as a share of exports is more than 15.054%, the international tourism will not have a positive effect on economic growth.The international tourism could promote the economic growth in China, but the international tourism has not had a full development. In the view of the problems of the international tourism during its development, we try to make some suggestions in this paper for some departments making the decisions about the development of international tourism to let the international tourism better stimulate the economic growth.