The Application Of Grey Prediction In Research Of Anhui Province Inbound Tourism

Grey prediction theory has become a promising new branch for prediction theory because of its flexibility in certain fields such as the condition of modeling and the choice of sample volume.The first chapter is introduction part, which summarizes the background information of the topic of this dissertation, the development of grey prediction theory and the present situation of the application of grey prediction theory in the prediction of tourism demand.The second chapter summarizes the grey system theory, expounds its structure system, and mainly focuses on the fundamental principles of this theory.The third chapter introduces grey prediction theory and modeling plan and procedures basic model, the concept and basic idea of GM-Markov prediction and the concept of combination prediction and lays stress on the mechanism modeling and procedure of GM-Markov prediction.The fourth chapter adopts sequence grey prediction, which is most extensively applied in grey prediction theory, as a method to make models and predict the population and exchange revenue in Anhui province inbound tourism, and finally analyzes the prediction result.The fifth chapter discusses the improvement of GM-Markov prediction modeling.Then based on this improvement, models are made respectively on the population and exchange revenue in Anhui province inbound tourism and make prediction. Next contrast the prediction data of the above-mentioned method with the prediction data resulted from the general GM-Markov prediction and sequence grey prediction and analyzes the advantage and disadvantage of different methods.The sixth chapter makes the conclusion, summarizes the study of this dissertation and indicates the direction of the further study.