Based on the theory of value LUCC and ecological services, based on the gray system dynamic GM (1, 1) model predicts the development trends of Nanchang city land, and on this basis, calculation of Nanchang city land use caused by the changes of land ecosystem service value loss (hereinafter referred to as "ecological loss"). At the same time, use linear programming establish land-use optimum allocation model of general land use planning, (hereinafter referred to as the "planning") the unreasonable part, and puts forward appropriate revised land ecological services Nanchang to maximize the value of land use plan.Through analysis and comparison LUCC prediction in recent years increased and farmland construction land is falling to speed up the development trend, land for residential areas and mining area every year by the speed increase; results Transportation each year in the area of land speed increase; the rates were 2.72% 0.63% annually garden area of speed reduced; Each year the cultivated land area to 0.43% speed decreased; Other agricultural land area per year speed decreased 0.20 percent; The forest area every year speed decreased to 0.15.LUCC prediction results compared with planning, found that even more of a scale of construction land planning according to the traditional development mode, and the prediction result as land ecological service value, the highest natural wetlands planning area of sharp decrease, serious impact on the city's ecological benefit, increase the ecological damage.In 2006, for the datum year through land ecological service value estimation, Nanchang city ecological loss by 2015 21852.04 million Yuan for forecasting, 2015 planning 89900.64 million Yuan higher ratio of ecological losses calculation results show that the traditional development mode on the land use structure is unreasonable, causing ecological loss; On the other hand plan does not give full play to the role of land ecosystem loss reduction, but increased loss should be reconsidered, and combination configuration optimization study of land use proper revision.Through the planning and forecasting ecological losses comparative analysis, comprehensive consideration of the economic development and ecological construction, it is concluded that planning needs factors such as the revision of types of land use have land for residential areas and mining, transportation, land and natural wetland, especially natural wetlands as planning revision of the emphasis should be, while maintaining forecast, planning reasonable part as a constraint conditions of configuration optimization model.The land use optimized configuration of the results of the study show that by 2015, Nanchang configuration optimization scheme for the ecological losses 4160.71 construction, it is concluded that planning needs factors such as the revision of typesof land use have land for residential areas and mining, transportation, land and naturalwetland, especially natural wetlands as planning revision of the emphasis should be,while maintaining forecast, planning reasonable part as a constraint conditions ofconfiguration optimization model.The land use optimized configuration of the results of the study show that by2015, Nanchang configuration optimization scheme for the ecological losses 4160.71million Yuan, the same year -- the GM (1, 1) predict ecological losses 26012.75million Yuan, reduce the more than in the same year planning 94061.35 million Yuan,ecological losses that optimize configuration scheme is not only beneficial toecological loss reduction in recent years, and compensate for the losses, andaccumulated ecological produced a certain ecological benefit, for the general land userevision of Nanchang provide the basis. |