Research On China's Treasury Bond Yield Spreads

In mature market economies, the level of bond yields and interest rate trends to forecast changes in economic trends are important, but not perfect in the market development of the country, bond yields forecast interest rate also would not achieve the economy. The main reason for this difference is that in mature and non-mature market economies, the formation mechanism of bond yields spreads are different.Although China's bond market, after twenty years of reform and development, regardless of the size of the debt or the depth of the market, investors on the level of participation compared with the previous development has come a long way, but at this stage, there are many bond market Issues, such as:bond market is small, the degree of market issuance of treasury bonds is not enough; debt maturity structure is not perfect, comparing a single species, the duration of the bond issue not continuous; bonds illiquid secondary market; bond market is divided State and can not build a unified Treasury yield curve; bond holder structure is irrational; bond market products are too simple, lack of derivative products.Determine the spread of market factors yields more, the Treasury yield spread, the stronger the predictive power; the other hand, determine the factors that yields the market interest rate less the Treasury yield spreads for the weaker predictive ability. Therefore, China's bond yields to find the real cause of lower spreads, bond yields have spread from the analysis of the impact of factors start. Interest rate movements affect the yields in China there are many factors, including market factors and non-market factors, including market factors including future economic and inflation expectations, bond supply and demand of capital market, monetary policy and exchange rate changes, non-market factors, including structural factors that bond market investors and the investment bond market behavior.Yields in China through the spread of market factors and the analysis of non-market factors and the empirical findings, compared with the United States, changes in regularity of Treasury yield curve is not obvious, my interest rate bond yield spreads and the inverse relationship was not significant, China's inflation, money supply and the relationship between bond yield spreads inconsistent with the traditional theory, bond yields forecast interest rate is not yet as an indicator of economic trends. To this end, we propose policy recommendations:increase the intensity of the bond market reforms to increase the supply of bonds to address the contradiction between supply and demand in the bond market; to change people's congresses to approve issuance of treasury bonds issuance amount of the system as a basis for the implementation of national debt balance quota system to increase the short-term debt distribution, improve the maturity structure of debt; accelerate the debt market infrastructure, promote high liquidity, high efficiency, equity, the formation of a unified bond market; accelerate the pace of interest rate reform, so that yields in the financial markets has become The benchmark interest rate.