Prediction Of Passenger Transport Products' Share Ratio In Regional Transport Corridor

With technology innovation, research and development of new transport tools and advanced management concepts presented, such as high speed railway and passenger line building, research and development of multiple unit train, the competition of passenger transport system in regional transport corridor not only consists among all kinds of transportation modes, it embodies among various kinds of passenger transport products, which step across the boundary of transportation mode.Keeping up market-oriented principle, starting with analysis of passenger travelling behaviour, predicting share ratio of passenger transport products rationally, and making clear the division of work among various kinds of passenger transport products in regional transport corridor play an important role in avoiding repeated construction and resource-wasting of infrastructure, optimizing passenger transport structure, raising global function and combined efficiency of transport corridor, and satisfing passenger travelling demand uttermostly.This paper firstly analyzed the connotation, characteristic and competition-cooperation relationship of passenger transport products in regional transport corridor, which clarified supply condition in regional transport corridor. Secondly, basing on market demand, this paper tried to disclose the essence of passenger travelling behaviour, differentially define the connotation of travelling demand subject and passenger, dig intrinsic factor which impact passengers selection of transport products. Again, it analysed the common sharing mechanism of passenger transport products in regional transport corridor, which is based on principles of utility-maximizing and economic cost-minimization, under the assumption of rational economic man. Then, in view of passenger traveling demand's diversification and layering, this paper put forward a new method to divide passengers, through which passengers were continuously divided according to interest correlation of passenger and time value of travelling demand subject.This method made for differentiating different kinds of passengers'selectivity characteristic in essence.Finally, combining the sharing mechanism of passenger transport products, the paper made up the logit classification prediction model of generalized cost function, and quantized and demarcated the model's attribution and parameter separately.This paper suggested that the essence of passenger travel behavoiur was optimizing resources by shift, travelling demand subject was the real demand body of travel, and the time value of travelling demand subject was the intrinsic factor to select transport products for passengers. under the utility maximization andeconomic cost minimum principle, passengers balanced magnitudes between travel cost and time value of travelling demand subject, and gave different weights to time and cost criteria, further made the selection decision to passenger transport products.Passenger is a independent interest subject, and whether passenger is related with the economic content involved in the course of travelling or not directly influences travelling demand subject confirm.Divided passengers continuously by time value of travelling demand subject, made use of Logit model based on generalized cost to predict share ratio of different kinds of passenger transport products, then aggregated every kind of passenger's share ratio to obtain all kinds of passenger transport products'total share ratio which was possessed of more scientificity and accuracy.