Short-term Forecast Traffic Flow Based On Ant Colony Algorithm And Applied Research

Road traffic is one of the important factors to affect the region economy and national development. Along with the rapid development of urban auto possession, the road problem of traffic congestion is more and more obvious in every city. Now people extend to more and more attention and development based on existing roads in intelligent transportation system because of the high cost and city based traffic over the construction of limited, and provide optimization and high efficiency traffic induction to bicycler from the time and space.Traffic induction and traffic prediction technology is inseparable. In traffic prediction, a set of good road traffic prediction algorithm can provide good instruction function to the road traffic induced. At present, There are many methods to predict traffic, and each has the advantages and disadvantages. According to a good effect on parallel and positive feedback function of ant colony algorithm, this paper study and found that traffic prediction technology has good performance and exploratory use ant colony algorithm as the will to traffic flow of short-time forecast.At first, this thesis analysis traffic flow and the uncertainty of the inner relationship between concrete and introduces the short-term forecast for traffic flow of the algorithm at home and abroad.This paper used inferiority of discussion and through comparing the algorithm, and maked feasibility analyses and discussing to the ant colony algorithm which applied in traffic flow short-term prediction. Then, this paper introduces the basic ant colony algorithm and analyzes the good algorithm convergence and pheromone mechanism, especially introduces the parameters of the genetic algorithms.At the same time, according to a lot of experience, this thesis also defined the parameter values within the scope of certain and verified superior of ant colony algorithm for the optimal path by MATLAB7.6 platform.After analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of colony algorithm based on heuristic information and information by offering for volatile mechanism adjustment and put forward improving optimization ant colony algorithm, this paper uses MATLAB7.6 platform and basic ant colony algorithm simulation control, and compare algorithms for solving classic problems to find that ant colony algorithm has good convergence and iterations. Finally, this paper suggests that the ant colony algorithm used in road traffic flow in the short-term forecast through the urban road traffic modeling. Let Ant colony algorithm apply to short-term prediction of road traffic flow, and put traffic flow proposed sub-period forecasts forward, and then the use of the experiment to comparison so that to choose the sub-optimum parameter from the predicted time, put this algorithm use in the sub-period forecast, the results show that the algorithm basically meet the requirements of short-term traffic forecasts. So that we can offer one of the methods for the short-term traffic forecast.