Studies On The Simulation Of The Group Behaviour Under Accidents

Since the world entered 21st century, global disasters including natural and social accidents have drawn high attentions from people in governments, academies and among others. More and more researches on accident crisis management are proposed by scientists with different backgrounds. Those researches are focused on seeking models with generality which will be able to provide accurate prediction thus minimizing the loss. In the author's point of view, it is necessary to focus on group behaviors.Foreign studies upon the accident crisis management have been comparatively penetrated, within which mature emulation model and simulating software have been developed. However, the domestic study started relatively late and was limited to either the illustration of the external phenomenon or the use of model. Simulation of specific scenes, especially the scenes with Chinese characteristics, was seldom involved. Thus, the Author proposed to study on the specific Chinese event, the countrywide transportation during the Chinese New Year.Considering group behavior in accidents, i.e., countrywide transportation in snowstorm, as the research objective, the author utilized numerical simulation method with social force model for analysis. The thesis thoroughly discussed group behaviors based on numerical simulation results of group behaviors evolvement with time in accidents and proposed relevant management guidelines according to existing researches and numerical analysis. Netlogo was used as simulation software because of its strong capability of modeling complex system as a function of time.Thesis works can be categorized in 3 parts as follows:(1) On the basis of the study of group behavior, the Author firstly amended the social force model according to the characteristics of the behavior of extensive crowd of people, and applied both the exit attraction to describe the attracting effect of exit on pedestrians, and the friend attraction to describe the group phenomenon. By taking the influence of relative speed on the social mental pressure into consideration, the Author illustrated the distinct social mental pressure resulted in the diverse position of pedestrians, and further revised the anticipant pace, and suggested Self-anticipant pace a function which contained factors as remaining time, distance between pedestrians and the surrounding speed circumstance. Such a model is able to predict the movement of crowd accurately and realistically.(2) The author raised an amended social force model, then analyzed the characters of the group behavior of the waiting passengers during the Chinese New Year, and discussed the movement of the acting force of the passengers at each period in the waiting room. Otherwise, the Author utilized Netlogo for modeling the passenger's behavior at waiting and the simulation study, and brought forward the simulation result of the movement of the passengers at all status in the waiting room.(3) The author suggested the managing countermeasure against the extensive transportation under the snow disaster during the Chinese New Year. Moreover, the Author further analyzed and induced the managing countermeasure on the general accidents.