An Evidence-based Study On Risk Prediction Of Alzheimer's Disease

ObjectiveTo analysis the risk factors of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) based on theory of EBM and to provide reference for further prevention and control of AD; To set a criteria for determining risks for AD so that potential risks of an individual can be identified and to lay a foudation for predicting individual risks of AD; To explore the factual usage of the methods in the elderly population in Suzhou.MethodsData of case-control studies published during 1999 to 2009 were collected by retrieval of literatures and analyzed by meta-analysis method. Risk fractions of varied levels of risk factors could be converted at an interval of ten years and the related risk scores were added to abtain a combined risk score to predict the individual's risk of AD. The risks of AD in 784 elderly subjects were evaluated by the method and tools of the 10-year risk estimation of AD,which was developed by meta-analysis and epidemiology investigation of AD.ResultsTwelve epidemiological studies on risk factors of AD met the inclusion criteria for this review. The cumulative cases and controls were 1288 and 2836. Family history of dementia,lose of spouse, diabetes were the main risk factors of AD.A risk score conversion table (quantitative criteria for assessment ) of main risk factors for AD were developed for the people aged 55-84.With 10-year cumulative incidence rate, the model can be applied to forecast the risk of AD. 87.58% of male and 68.24% of female had a 10-year risk of AD less than 16.80%. Except diabetes, low cultural level,family history of dementia, mild cognitive impairment,lose of spouse,depression,lack of physical exercise and group activities in the high risk group was also higher than that in the low risk respectively. ConclusionIn this study, a criteria for risk estimation of AD could be set by analyzing the data of epidemiological studies with meta-analysis. Estimation of risk of morbidity from AD could be used to predict individual potential risk of morbidity from AD in the following 10 years. It lay a foundation for health education to persuade people to change their life styles and behaviors, and could be used in community health service. It also provided a useful reference for other disease.