Portfolio In The High-rise Building Settlement Prediction Model

With the urbanization accelerated, a large amount of high building emerged, high building security problem increasingly, so it is very essential to observe high-rise building settlement. The purpose of the deformation monitoring is to obtain the information of deformation observation, to acquire scientific accurate analysis of deformation bodies'deformation condition. Then it makes decisions through grasping the deformation characteristics and regularity of deformation bodies, and the tendency of deformation in accurate analysis and forecast, for construction of the accurate judgment. At present, there are a colossal number of deformation analysis forecast model having been commonly used, such as regression analysis model, time series analysis model, gray system theory analysis model, kalman Smoothing model, artificial neural network model, the wavelet analysis. Because a single model of the research factor is different, so it has its own applicable condition, all have certain advantages. But in the practical application, a model will be difficult to take into consideration of various factors that influences the results of the forecast.Since Bates J.M. and Granger C.W.J. firstly stated the combination forecasting methods. the research of which has maken a big progress. Combination model is combining different prediction model together through the appropriate combination method, in order to utilize a single model's merit and to overcome the limitations of the disadvantage, so as to improve the accuracy of prediction. The quality of combination forecast model is closely linked to the model option, weight coefficient.Because the time series analysis model has high precision in random error forecast, and the grey system theory model in the building deformation trend prediction has a lot of advantages. It will be a very good combination model that combines the time series analysis model and gray system theory model. It has a lot of scholars do the research on the feasibility of combination model. This paper discuss the feasibility of combination of the grey system theory model and time series analysis model in engineering application, using one of normal university number 3 residential building measured data for foundation settlement. This paper first processes and analyze the data in time series analysis model and gray system theory model separately. After that, combination models to predict the result, then the three treatment result was analyzed, and it concludes that the combination model is superior to a single model.