Study On The Traffic Risk Analysis And Forewarning Management Of Freeway Under Disaster Weather

As the increasing of countrywide freeway traffic mileage, the ratio of traffic accidents increases and the problems of traffic safety stand out day by day。Bab weather brings heavy hidden danger to freeway safety. To ensure freeway traffic fast and safety has become a hot issue at present.The thesis studies the impacts from adverse weather on freeway traffic safety. It includes three main parts: risk identification, risk ranking, and risk management. Based on historical weather data, the paper selects rain, fog, ice, snow and so on as main research subjects and defines different weather's levels. The impacts on freeway traffic safety under bad weather conditions are analyzed in order to determine driving risk levels. Considering actual situations, traffic accidents data is very difficult to collect. So the paper is derived from the questionnaires to drivers. And the questionnaire includes many factors such as roadway, traffic demand and others. Thus, a multi-ordered choice model is developed based on data from SuTong Bridge. Relying on the software of SPSS, the logit model and the probit model are built respectively. Obviously, the former is better in views of test values. Finally, the driving risk levels and corresponding probability under various conditions can be calculated. And the paper comes up with some effective measures in aspects of speed control, information release, and traffic management.The driving risk levels and risk management under adverse weather conditions is important to make emergence response plans and to allocate emergency resources reasonably. At the study is helpful to enhance freeway traffic safety management and reduce traffic accident under adverse weather conditions.