Research On Duration Risk Analysis And Control Method Of The Petroleum Geophysical Exploration Project

The oil industry is the lifeline of the national economy. With the development ofeconomic globalization and economic integration, strengthening the degree of depend on oiland gas of each country, the ownership of the oil and gas is increasingly becoming the symbolof the comprehensive national strength. Under the influence of above, petroleum geophysicalexploration industry also receives great attention. Whether the petroleum exploration projectcan be completed on schedule or not, which can directly affect the drilling, oil extraction orother links. Therefore, the problem about the risk of the petroleum geophysical explorationproject duration has become an important subject between domestic and overseas scientists.By this paper, we research about the status of influence factors of the project durationrisk, the risk analysis and the control method firstly, which is from domestic and overseas. Onthe basis of fully understand the theory of petroleum geophysical exploration project, the riskand the project duration, the paper paints the typical petroleum exploration project networkwith the petroleum exploration project characteristics, and uses the method of improvedPERT to measure the risk of petroleum geophysical exploration project duration. Consideringof the data sources of the project, the author use the experts' investigation method to identifythe risk factors, and selecting22secondary indexes from the factors about environment,management, finance, personnel, equipment, contract, technology, and supervision at last.According to setting principle of geophysical exploration project schedule risk evaluationindex system, based on the research result of the study of project duration risk evaluationindex system, constructing a set of AHP model which is suitable for it, and using this methodto sort of these secondary indexes by their importance degree. Then provide the monitoringmethods and specific improvement measures, which can offer references for the petroleumgeophysical exploration project duration risk. Finally, the paper combines with the exampleand verifies that the method of measure risk and the control measures in this paper couldprovide an effective tool for the petroleum geophysical exploration project duration riskanalysis and the control method.