The Load Analysis And Forecast Of Nature Gas Distribution

Accurate analysis and forecast network load is of great significance in design, management and dispatching of nature gas. It promotes the system of nature gas transportation to run safely and economically. So it is the important part of the development of the system of nature gas transportation. It is the basic information for nature gas company to research.Due to the system of nature gas transportation, analysis and research the heterogeneity of this kind of system take the example of Suzhou Nature Gas Co.LTD. Select the data of this kind of system. Use the method of exponential smoothing and back propagation to get the law of heterogeneity. This article summarize and analysis the law of heterogeneity of this kind of system. Use informationalized method of data processing to forecast network load of nature gas and optimize the control and management of cellular system. The government has developed nature gas as a kind of energy resources. Under the circumstances, nature gas transportation take very important part of this system. The study is very useful for the development of nature gas transportation.The study investigates and collects the data of gas load of Suzhou Nature Gas. Base on the analysis and summary of related literature, use the method of heterogeneity of city gas load to analysis the data. We get the month heterogeneity and daily heterogeneity. This article use reference of method of exponential smoothing and back propagation to modeling and forecast network load of nature gas transportation. Use exponential smoothing to forecast the load of next several years. Revolutionary add the factor of climate and development of urban economy as impact factor to forecast load of nature gas. Collect the average temperature and Gross National Product of Suzhou city. We get the month forecast load of nature gas by method of back propagation. We find the factor that the forecast by this article is more accurate.The dispatcher of nature gas transportation can make more reasonable control by the forecast of nature gas load and the heterogeneity of the system. It makes the system more safety, more steady. It phase down waste in natural sources and create the economic benefits and social benefits for the enterprise.