Stratified Random Sampling For Quantitative Sensitive Question Survey And Its Application

Objective:In the survey of sensitive question, when it comes to sensitive problem,respondents often refuse to answer or providing false answer in order to protect theirsecrets. The randomized response technique (RRT) solve this difficult problem. It wascreated by Warner in1965.Then it was improved by Simmons and other people, theycreated multiple kinds of model to solve different kinds of questions. To ensure thevalidity and reliability of survey, RRT must be used with scientific sampling method.Before the study of our project team, researches of randomized response technique(RRT) for sensitive questions were developed and studied with the restriction that thesample was selected through simple random sampling. the discussion just base on thesingle survey. In this paper, we combine the stratified random sampling with doubleirrelevant problem model,additive model,multiply model, derived relevant formulas tosolve complex sampling on sensitive question survey. We also applied these in thesurvey of MSM population in Beijing. What's more, we use the Excel to apply MonteCarlo simulate in order to assess validity and reliability of our method. In this way, weprovide scientific and effective design on sensitive questions under the condition ofstratified sampling from large population.Method:When deriving relevant formula, the basic theories and methods of mathematicalstatistics were used. During the survey of MSM population of Beijing urban, peri-urban,sub urban,the additive model of RRT was used.In the process of simulation, functions,formulas and macros of Excel were used to calculate the result and assess the validityand reliability of our method.Result:The formula were deduced for the estimator of the population proportion and its estimated variance for double irrelevant problem model,additive model,multiplymodel used for sensitive questions survey in stratified sampling. The survey results ofBeijing MSM population are as follows: The average age of first MSM age was22.07.The average number of different sexual partners of MSM was2.74person every monthfor per person. It was4.59times of the number of MSM on average monthly. In the150times Z test of the result of Monte Carlo simulation based on the Excelsoftware,142times test have no statistical significance.Conclusion:1. The Stratified Random Sampling technology innovation for QuantitativeSensitive Question have meaning. The application in the MSM populationof Beijing is successful.2. The survey show that multi sexual partners phenomenon does exist amongthe MSM population of Beijing. Multi sexual partners is one of the reasonthat cause the AIDS and venereal disease rates among MSM higher than inthe general population. This phenomenon should cause the attention of therelated department of health.3. The Monte Carlo simulation based on the Excel software is a simple methodto learn and use, especially for the non-computer professionals.