The Predicting Model Of Chinese Population Based On A Compound Model

Outside of China, there are mainly two population models about the research of the population growth. They are:Malthus population model and Logistic model.These two models are only applicable to the case of continuous population growth, but they do not meet the future growth of China's population situation. At home, the main predicting models about the population growth are:gray GM (1,1) model and the Song Jian population model. Grey GM (1,1) model only can predict the total number of Chinese population in short-term,and there are many errors on the long-term prediction and errors go up as time pass by. Song Jian population model is complex and difficult to carry out, which is inconvenient in putting into practice.The paper will study predicting population models and predict future demographic trends in China. We will first establish Compound model of population based on Logistic model, and then by studying the rules of our previous study of census data, using a linear regression model to establish a net population growth rate. Finally,we establish a model of China's predicting population by using mathematical software to determine the population parameters in the model. To predict China's total population in the future 28 years, and the result shows that China will maintain a low population growth the next 28 years; to zero growth by the year 2033, the population maximum will be 1.476 billion; from the year 2035, Chinese will start negative growth.