Dynamic Evolution And Chaos Control Of Electricity Market Based On Bidding Decisions With Heterogeneous Expectations

After reviewing research achievements about dynamic evolution of market and chaos control, in this paper, from power market characteristics, the dynamic power market model considering physical characteristics of monopolistic network is established and the complicated evolvement mechanism in the state of Nash equilibrium, period and chaos is analyzed. Establishing the economic evaluation system of the dynamic behavior of power market, because in chaotic state, the economic performance is worse than in the state of equilibrium, the chaos control is proposed in order to improve the benefit of the market.In order to accurately describe the characteristics of power market and simulate the dynamic behaviors of participants in power market, based on different bidding decisions with heterogeneous expectations, i.e.,limited rational expectations and adaptability expectations, of market participants (Power suppliers and users ), with the supply (or demand) function model similar to bidding process of power market, a dynamic model of electricity market considering power network constraints is proposed. It's the combination of the participants'bidding decision dynamic model and the market clearing optimize model considering transmission constraints, which are present as discrete difference equations embedded with the optimization problem in mathematics.This model is represented by a discrete difference equations embedded with the optimization problem of market clearing. It describes different decision-makings that the generation and demand sides bid simultaneously, accurately reflects the process of market clearing by the ISO and considers the complex market constraints by the inherent physical characteristics of power network.By using the nonlinear complementarity function, corresponding to different operational conditions of power network, i.e., congestion or non-congestion, quantitatively studying the Nash equilibrium and its stability of the dynamic model and the periodic or chaotic dynamic behaviors are present when the market parameters are out of the stability region of Nash equilibrium. The economic performance is quantitatively evaluated when the market lies in the Nash equilibrium, period and chaos. For poor economic performance of market chaos, the state time-delayed feedback control method and Parameters perturbations control method of electricity market is proposed. The measures and means of market control from chaotic state to stable Nash equilibrium is suggested in order to provide a theoretical basis for effectively improving the economic performance of market.By using the software of Matlab, through numerical simulation program, the example of three-node power market and fourteen node power market is analyzed and calculated, and the result shows that the proposed power market dynamic evolution model and its chaotic control method is feasibility and validity.