Research On The Real Estate Debt Crisis Early Warning Model

The U.S subprime mortgage crisis,which was caused by various factors,it was an evitable accident.It caused a great finacial loss to American economy. it even brought a huge loss to other countries. The U.S Subprime mortgage crisis was the performance of real estate debt crisis in the U.S. as a special form of expression So,how to prevent the real estate debt crisis which was an urgent problem concerned by many countries. through studying the causes and the conduction mechanism of the real estate debt crisis by many experiments,analyzing the fluctuation of every variables of macro-economy in this crisis, comparing and learning the results of other financial risk early warning models,this paper established a new real estate debt crisis early warning model which could alarm and prevent debt crisis accordingly.then,by using the volatility data of macro-economic variables in the U.S subprime mortgage crisis ,the paper tested its effectivenessIt was a crucial and hard to chooes the variables of the real estate debt crisis warning model . if we choosed just a small amout of quantity of variables ,the early warning system might not be correct because of the insufficient information to establish the model .on the contrary ,too much variable would aslo result in too many redundant information, it would increase the difficulty of analysis and calculation .it was different from the Asian finaicial crisis , the real estate debt crisis was due to the bursting of the real estate market bubble .so we got some variables from the economic and social areas through leaning the principles of KLR model in its warning model variables system. we frist done some macro-analysis on this research.it would help us to find the underlying causes .then we aslo added the possible variables reflecting the state of the macro-economy reaction. So,we set a best the U.S real estate equation reflecting the trends of the market price by using multiple linear regression analysis. through the equation , we eliminated the redundancy and identified a series of key variables. We indetified the most correlated variables and their importance in the early warning model. finally,according to KLR signal analysis ,we used these variables to establish the new real estate debt crisis early warning model to alert the real estate debt crisis. Model application and test data showed that the model was a basic realization of the previous design ideas.The basic conclusions obtained in this paper was as follow:it was proved on the research that the prediction capabilities of the real estate debt crisis warning model were very high, and the model aslo could be in accordance with the basic analysis of the macroeconomic side. we could see the early warning model based on the debt crisis also had good early warning capacity, it sent a clear warning signal before the real estate debt crisis. the system was easy to understand . the model could be used in predicting the future macro-economy short or long term risks by using short or long term macro-economy idex values.