The Application Of Bayesian Method In Actuarial

We review the application of Bayesian method in actuarial at first,and then introduce Bayesian method and corresponding contents.Traditional reinsurance pure premium is a certain proportion of insurance premium,we mainly propose the Bayesian method and Winbugs software to estimate probability and conditional expectation of extremely large losses , we have not only obtained a empirical posterior distribution but also obtained a precise interval estimate. Insurance company can judge whether they can afford the risk based on this and its own capital. Whenever reinsurance is needed, we use poisson distribution to model claim count process,and then estimate reinsurance pure premium which they can't afford.We use Hierarchical Bayesian Models to construct a spatial-temporal models based on temporal and spatial factor affecting agricultural yield data. This model can exactly predict agricultural yield data of unit area in future, in order to estimate individual yield crop insurance more exactly.