The Relation Between Storm Surge In The Western Guangdong Waters And Such Elements As Landing Location And Path Of Tropical Cyclone

Zhapo station and Naozhou station are selected as representative stations in the western Guangdong waters. .It is foud that there is a big deviation between the forecast time of peak value and the actual situation if the Jelesnianski storm surge forecast methods is used during 1992～2006.Just because of this,the relation between time as well as form of peak value in the western Guangdong waters and such elements as landing location and path of tropical cyclone is tried to be foud in order to forecast the peak value more accurately.Tropical cyclones which effected or landed on these two stations from the year of 1992 to 2006 are classified into north of representative stations,south of representative stations,west of representative stations,east of representative stations and other types by their landing location.On the basis of that,the tropical cyclones are classified into northwestward path,westward path,northward path and diversion path ,then systematically analyses the relation between peak-value time of storm surge caused by all kinds of tropical cyclones and their landing location and path .The connection between storm surge and tropical cyclone wind structure is qualitative tested by dynamic analysis.The research results are also tested and corrected by the practical tests in daily work on storm surge forecast from 2007 to 2010.The results show:(1)The peak-value usually happens when or pre and post the tropical cyclone lands no more than 3 hours if the tropical cyclone lands north of the representative stations The peak-value usually happens before or after the tropical cyclone lands in 1～2 hour if the tropical cyclone lands south of the representative stations. The peak-value usually happens when or after the tropical cyclone lands no more than 3 hours if the tropical cyclone lands west of the representative stations.The peak-value usually happens before the tropical cyclone lands more than a few hours if the tropical cyclone lands east of the representative stations. The examples of other types of tropical cyclone are so few that the regularity isn't obvious.(2)On the whole,the storm surge caused by the tropical cyclone landing north,south and west of the representative stations is usually higher than that caused by the tropical cyclone landing east of the representative stations.(3) The time of the peak-value has little to do with the path of tropical cyclone besides the tropical cyclone landing south of the representative stations.(4) The dynamic analysis shows that the peak-value time has intimate association with the landing location.(5)The strom surge is a complicated process which is caused by strong wind and sharp change of atmospheric pressure of tropical cyclone.In general,peak -value of the positive storm surge is still bigger than that of the negative storm surge.(6)Although time of the peak-value has to do with the landfall position and moving path of tropical cyclone,it is also has close relationship with the astronomical tide.(7)This paper only studies on the correlation of the landfall position as well as the moving path of tropical cyclone and the strom surge. The relationship between the factors(such as distance between the landfall position and representative stations,centre pressure , wind speed of tropical cyclone) with the strom surge,as well as the effect on storm surge by resonance effect,topographic factor ect. should be further studied in future work.