Research For The Joint Design Standards Of Wind And Wave Parameters Based On Hazard Rate Analysis

In recent years, with the development of oil, there is less and less chance to found the large oil field, so, researchers pay more and more attention to the exploitation of the marginal oil field. However, due to low economic efficiency, the development of marginal oil field was very slow. How to reduce the development cost bast on ensuring security become a national focus of research.In this thesis, it use Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution to analyze the long-term observations and subsequent retribution data of a simple point, and then give the maximum wind speed and significant wave height two dimensional joint design standards of this point. By using the Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution, this thesis offer a new joint design standard of wind and wave based on hazard rate anslysis. Compare with the traditional method, this method reduce the parameter design values which should reduce the development cost bast on ensuring security.The main content of this study is as follows:1. Summarize several common extreme value distribution model of one elements systemicly, at the same time, introduce the corresponding parameter estimation method for every distribution. Summarize the existing two-dimensional joint probability model.2. Take the Bohai Sea area as an example, describes the environmental conditions subsequent retribution models and model checking, including an overview of environmental information, selection of hydro-meteorological parameters model, the rule of extreme analysis. Take the Bohai Sea Area as an example, give subsequent retribution data the long-term observations.3. Establish the marine platform model with ANSYS software, and fit a formula for a specific sea area.4. Select the extreme wave height and corresponding wind speed, the extreme wind speed and corresponding wave height model as the two samples to verify the applicability of Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution and proposed joint design storm standards.5. By using the Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution, this thesis offer a new joint design standard of wind and wave based on hazard rate anslysis. This method not only ensure security but also reduce the development cost of the marginal oil field.