| Venture capital, as an innovative financial, the background of its emergence and development is the rise of hi-tech industry. The importance on the whole economic system of the venture capital is significantly increasing, which is as an important component of modern innovative system. The final purpose of the venture capital is the invest income, and the final choice of it withdraws from venture enterprise under the proper condition. The key problem of the withdrawing is the mode selection and opportunity grasping. So established a perfect derision mechanism, not only it is the important link of indispensable of investment activity itself, but also it will cause profound reality significance to the development of venture investment industry and economic construction of China, which is the research purpose of the paper.The paper includes two parts:(1)As to the venture investment meets irreversible and asymmetry in the investment process, the game theory and the real option rules are adopted. Based on the cash flow follows the Geometric Brownian Motion, cash flow is emerged in the venture investment programmer hypothetically. The value of withdrawing immediately and keeping current status are analyzed in the venture investment. According to the optimal theory, the common model of withdrawing opportunity of venture investment is established.Conclusion::the venture capitalist can choose to exit at the date of the IPO if the profit flow of the venture capital projects is greater than the critical valuable; the probability of exiting at the date of the IPO is the lower when the critical value is the higher.(2)Based on the cash flow follows the Arithmetic Brownian Motion, which the cash flow is emerged in the venture investment programs hypothetically. The value of withdrawing immediately and keeping current status are analyses in the venture investment. According to the optimal theory, the common model of withdrawing opportunity of venture investment is established.Conclusion:the venture capitalist can choose to exit at the date of the IPO if the profit flow of the venture capital projects is greater than the critical valuable; the probability of exiting at the date of the IPO is the lower when the critical value is the higher. The critical value determines the exit choice, which is in turn determined by many factors such as the uncertainty of its profit flow, risk adjusted discount rate, the increase of enterprise value, stock trading costs, and stock proportions at the time of opening quotation selling and after the lockup period and etc. |
