| The balance of personal housing loans about commercial banks growths annually; meanwhile, the proportion of bad personal housing mortgage loan is starting to climb up. Finding the factors influencing breach of contract risks on personal housing mortgage loan is the object of study.By using the models of SPSS11 statistic software, investigation data are analyzed with 3680 normal loan samples and 320 breach of contract loan samples of one specific state-owned commercial bank in Kunming City . Identification chart of typical features of breach of contract borrowers, regression forecast models, reference chart for mass breach of contract probability and personal credit evaluation models are also established in this thesis. Loan amount, term, proportion of down payment, marital status, highest academic degree, actual household monthly income, monthly income have greater influence on the breach of contract status.Conclusions are also been made that an increased amount for down payment and interest rate differentiation can both effectively guard against risks in the aspect of loan features. Family income, age, marriage, industry, profession, house price index, purchasing area and trading prices as well as establishing personal credit evaluation model can effectively guard against risks of basic features of the borrower. Taking full advantage of bank reference system, appealing to the government to improve the system of registration formula can effectively minimize risks brought about by information asymmetry; Standardization of application materials, filling in legal documents, examination and approval, improved personal credit guaranty system, insurance systems can all ward off risks in social security and legal affairs. The establishment of quantitative analysis, standardization of post-loan management and programming of information processing can also help uplift post-loan management levels. |
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