Choice Of Intermediate Target Of Monetary Policy

Monetary policy intermediate target is an important segment in a valid monetary policy system. Whether monetary policy can play an expect effect on economic development partly depends on intermediate target. Recent years, with the development of finance opening, the disadvantage of monetary aggregates intermediate target appears gradually. Main behaviors are weakened in money supply level and ultimate target of monetary policy correlativity, the central bank be not worth controlling money supply. Therefore, it's urgent to research monetary policy intermediate once again.The key content of this dissertation is to study the superior and inferior of a variety of financial variables functioning as intermediary targets and the arrangements of intermediate targets of monetary policy. The whole dissertation is developed in accordance with the following proper order: from theory to practice, from overseas to domestic, from history to present. It focuses on choice and academic circles argument on monetary policy intermediate and positive study on validity of some related financial variables as intermediate targets from qualitative and quantitative analysis. Especially, more importance is attached to analyze the validity of monetary aggregates as intermediate targets. The author adapts up to Granger causality test and Johansson test to checkout whichis the new ideas of this thesis. Based on the analyses it's formed alternative monetary policy of current and future in our country.First, for the part of theoretical analyses, the author analyzes the monetary policy system and choose standard of monetary policy intermediate. Later on, the author makes a comparative study of some related theories coming from Keynesian school, Monetarism school. Then the author introduces new development of monetary policy intermediate-inflation targeting. Moreover, theoretical dispute and theoretical analyses of monetary transmission mechanism have provided guidance and theoretical support for the following positives analyses.Second, the authors studies the history of intermediate targets of monetary policy of four main western countries, and summarizes its general tendency and developing law, which to sum up, are as follows: three stages and four kinds main patterns. China could gain a deal of enlightenment.Third, for the part of positive analyses on intermediate targets of monetary policy of China, three sections are developed properly. In the beginning, the author analysis cash, total credit and monetary aggregates as intermediate targets from history. More importance is attached to analyze the validity of monetary aggregates as intermediate targets from quantitative analysis. The author adopt statistics method to analysis monetary aggregates measurability, controllability and correlation. By thefact of Granger causality test and Johansson test, we find that monetary aggregate as intermediate targets has effect, but its validity is weakened unceasingly.Finally, the author carries out validity analysis on choosing interest rate or inflation targeting as monetary policy intermediate. The result is that neither can be carried out at present in China nor has satisfied replace monetary aggregates. Hereto, basic judgment of present intermediate targets of monetary policy of Chinese is formed. Facing the reality of validity weakens, the author bring forward measures to improve. Such as revising counting system, dredging monetary policy transmission and perfecting foreign currency management system and so on. In addition, the author bring forward alternative far-reaching plan of monetary policy intermediate target. A collection of informative variable, including interest rate, monetary aggregates, quantity of loans, exchange rate and other economic variables, and an analytical frame should be set up. Our country should continue insisting on the monetary aggregates as intermediate target at present.