China's Oil And Energy Strategy

As the major strategic energy source and special commodity, petroleum plays a key role in national economic development. In the last few years, world petroleum price increases significantly,especially in 2005, the international oil price has been soaring and has reached new high again and again.The crude oil futures touched USD 70.85 per bucket—the highest price in the history on August 30,2005 . But at the same time, the world economy neither gets bogged down nor appears the decline that people expect.On the contrary,the strong economic development tendency is beyond our imagination. According to the statistics by IMF, international oil price has soared 87.7% during 2003-2005, but the world economy in 2004 and 2005 increased 5.1% and 4.3% respectively. The latest estimate by IMF expresses when the crude oil price rises 10%, global GDP growth will reduce 0.1-0.15 percent.The world average price of crude oil was USD 53.6 per bucket in 2005, soaring 42.1% in contrast to the 2004's.The world economy ,therefore, decelerated 0.8%, but that figure was a lot lower than 2% predicted at the beginning of the year, this phenomenon deserves our deep concern.Why is the world economic impact resulted from high petroleum price different from that made by former oil crisis. Is it an accidental phenomenon or a new development trend?With the durable, rapid and stable growth of our national economy, the domestic demand for petroleum has appeared a strong growth tendency, but local petroleum production cant meet the elementary requirements of the national economy, so the supply—demand gap has expanded further.What kind of influence would the high oil price bring to China which is in the process of speeding up its industrialization this time.? What kinds of measures should we adopt to solve this big problem?Under these circumstances, first this thesis makes use of many important economic indicators such as national economy, the structural changes of energetic consumption, world petroleum price, stock conditions to carry on thorough and concrete analysis of the supply and demand contradiction of the domestic and international petroleum markets in the form of regression and time series models, and predicts the future supply and demand situations accordingly.Secondly, we analyze the advantages and disadvantages of international competition strategy about Chinese petroleum resources while evaluating existing situation and future strategic tendency of Amercia's global oil control so as to awake to the opportunities and challenges now China faced.In conclusion, based on the above analysis, we put forward six relative solutions as following:-Carrying out diversified development strategy of energy;-Importing petroleum and gas resources from different sources;-Establishing diversified petroleum transport passages to relieve the excessivedependence of the Strait of Malacca;-Benefiting successful experience from the international petroleum store in...