Study On Coordination And Optimization Of Supply Chain Of Fresh Agricultural Products Under Climate Change

Agriculture is one of the major industries for thousands of years in our country and the No.l documents of the central government have been focusing on the agriculture over the past ten years, it shows solving the "three rural" issue has become a serious problem. "Producer+company" is a new type of modern agricultural industrialization development mode to solve those problems with the development of science and technology. However, agriculture is one of the most sensitive to climate change. Although in recent years, with the development of science and technology, the level of agricultural production has been improving steadily and the output of fresh agricultural products are rising steadily. With the vigorous development of efficient information publishing platform and internet technology, the manufacturer has made considerable progress in terms of forecasting weather conditions and getting information about the weather changing faster. But when manufacturers are facing the impact of uncontrolled non-catastrophic bad weather, it still appears to be stretched. Especially in recent years, uncontrollable weather frequently appearance has caused extremely serious impact on the output of agricultural products and freshness in the process of production, transportation and sales, so that both of producers and companies lack the incentive of fulfilling the contract face of adverse weather and the robustness of the agricultural products supply chain system has reduced which seriously restricted the development and transformation and upgrading of our country modern agriculture industrialization. In view of this, based on the study of the "single manufacturer and single company" two fresh agricultural products supply chain model was built and considering the loss of yield and freshness attenuation effective supply chain contract was designed in order to solve the risk sharing and revenue sharing under adverse weather for agricultural products supply chain members.First, solve the problems of fresh agricultural supply chain coordination optimization under uncertainty supply. The effect of adverse weather on the output of the fresh agricultural products and the loss of yield and freshness attenuation because of the characteristics of fresh agricultural products which are easy to be brittle, deteriorate and corroded were considered and then the "Risk sharing+Revenue sharing" contract mechanism to solve risk sharing and revenue sharing problem of adverse weather for the agricultural products supply chain members to achieve supply chain coordination or the Pareto improvement was designed. Through establishing the dynamic gain optimal decision model, it is proved that this contract can make the supply chain members to make optimal decisions, the formation of an effective incentive mechanism enhances the robustness of the agricultural products supply chain system, and the coordination state of the supply chain system is not changed in the adverse weather and a steady supply of high-quality agricultural products in a certain extent are guaranteed under the contract designed by the company. Finally, numerical analysis verifies the scientific, validity and correctness of the designed contract.Secondly, solve the problems of the fresh agricultural supply chain coordination optimization under uncertainty demand. The adverse weather and the manufacturer’s effort level have a great influence in the fresh agricultural products effective output, so the effort level of producers, the company’s promotional effort level which affect the freshness of fresh agricultural products were considered. The "risk sharing+surplus stock repurchase" contract mechanism relating with adverse weather index was designed by the company to solve the risk sharing problem due to the execution of the order of the members of the supply chain coordination. The dynamic game model and the optimal decision model of supply chain revenue are analyzed that the "risk sharing +surplus stock repurchase" contract can produce effective incentive mechanism, reduce the manufacturer’s weather risk in the production process, share the company sales risk in the process of market, and prevent the opportunistic behavior of producers. The contract makes the supply chain members to conscientiously fulfill the contract order, and the robustness of the two level of agricultural products supply chain is enhanced. Uncontrollable and non-catastrophic weather distorts the manufacturer’s effort level and market price under decentralized decision model. Coordination contract mechanism does not change the supply chain system and guarantees the stable supply of high-quality agricultural products through the analysis of science. Finally, the scientific, validity and correctness of the designed contract verified through the simulation cases.Finally, in view of two research contents of the uncertainty both the supply and demand, the conclusions were summarized, and the suggestions and research prospects were put forward. Whether it is in supply uncertainty under the design of risk sharing and revenue sharing contract mechanism or demand uncertainty under the "risk sharing +surplus stock repurchase" contract mechanism, adverse weather change does not affect the coordination state of the agricultural products supply chain system, and can achieve supply chain coordination. What’s more, from the angles of the integration of industry, market segmentation, building new industrial chain and creating the perspective of industry innovation alliance reduce the costs in the process of production and transportation undermining the company sales risk in the market to obtain greater benefits for the members of the supply chain. In the end, this paper provides a brief introduction to the content of the follow-up study.