| Since its release in 2009, the market of Chinese local government bond has grown in strength, issunce on the rise year by year, and its role in the capital market is becoming mored and more important. With the recent implicit debt of local governments be innovated, and the adjustment of macroeconomic structure, the risk of local government debt market is gradually attentions. Although previous studies by Chinese scholars have a lot of local government debt,generally focus on issues pricing study, the relative lack of credit spreads, so the paper will adopt the credit spread, to the systematic and comprehensive analysis of Chinese local government debt risk premium.The article ueses the literature analysis, theoretical analysis, comparative analysis and empirical analysis methods.First of all domestic and foreign theories and researchful results about local government bonds are reviewed and combed; Secondly in the paper it compares to the local government bonds risk sources between China and US, and analyzes its possible differences; At the end of the paper, based on the structured model to select variables, and according to Chinese the risk characteristics of local government debt, we further research to the interest rate risk and liquidity risk of local government debt premium explanation, and analysis of China’s local government debt risk profile of composition. Empirical studies have found that credit risk doesn’t constitute the major risk of China’s local government bond market, the risk factors of interest rate explain the dynamics of the model more than 50%, becoming China’s local debt market’s main sources of risk, and liquidity risk factors singnificantly infuence on the local debt risk, becoming an inportant source of risk.In this paper, the results of study can be done to investors decision making, make guidance for issuers, and provide the policy basis for the market regulators. |
