The Dual Marginal Analysis Of China 's Export To Germany

Under the circumstance that the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis has not yet subsided, economies of China and Germany still maintained a steady growth momentum, therefore the international community is also increasingly concerned to the trade situation between China and Germany. In this paper, we innovatively use the duality margin method; analyze the mode feature of Chinese exports to Germany and the evolution of trade from the perspective of product level, and linked the micro and macro perspective export trade flows by duality margin, extended the duality margin to the macro market level on the basis of the Trade-Models-with-Heterogeneous-Firms Theory. It tries to analyze the country’s export growth model to Germany from duality margin, which is a new research angle, and establish a VAR model by empirical methods, explore the factors related to duality margin, ultimately to promote the growth of bilateral trade.Through a combination of theory research and empirical analysis, this paper draw the following conclusions:bilateral Export Trade between China and Germany overall expanded but has yet to be optimized commodity structure; in respect of the duality marginal contribution of China to the German export trade growth, the contribution of the intensive margin is more prominent, but the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing expanded more dependent margin growth. In the aspect of factors that affects export duality margin, to whether intensive margin or extended margin, importing country’s economies of scale and trade costs are the most important factor. Therefore, reducing trade costs, promoting trade liberalization; focusing on product heterogeneity, increasing value-added products; adjusting trade area, decentralizing market risk become the effective means to promoting trade for a sustainable growth in the current business environment, which the resources is increasingly limited.