| The demographic data contains a large amount of information , such as the distribution of population, character of population migration and the spatial auto-correlated of population, which is important and significant for the social development and the decision-making of the government. Therefore, how to dig these information is very important for the current research in demology. (The traditional analysis method of demographic data has already shown its limitation,so the more convenient, more flexible and more efective in precision and new analysis approaches of statistics are needed adapting to the sustainable development of the society.) Geographic information system (GIS) is a new science, which has a mighty competence to deal and analyses spatial geo-information. The Spatial Analysis with GIS is applied extensively in various fields during these decades, while it plays an important role in the analysis and decision-making. It becomes a trend to design a sort of geographic information system for the usage and service in some scopes.This paper analyses the spatial auto-correlated of population, the transfer of the population barycenter, the standard deviational ellipse of the population, the PCI index of the population distribution, and the visibility of the population spatial. I make use of the space-analysis technology in the geographical information , combining with the analyzing method of the space statistics, and making some improvement of these methods.Basing on the theoretical algorithm, Author draw a main frame by using the Visual Studio 2005, employ the C# program-design language, ArcEngine9.2, and ArcGIS Server ADF to design the model system and functional module. In this paper author construct a model system provided with the client-analyzing function and server data- promulgate function. Through this paper I have solved some problems on the operation, including the deviation between data management and data analysis, the data analysis renegading from the special data issuance. Meanwhile, founding on the COM, I design DLL groupware using parts of the functional module. This DLL groupware can deviate from the root model system, and be used on other applications. As a result, it shows the agility and practicability in systemic function, which can be used in the extensive or reconstructive system.In this paper, choosing the population density data of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanxi in 1990 and 2000. Using the systemic-function module, calculate the Globe Moran's index in 1990 and 2000 is 0.1288 and 0.2033 respectively, After normal distribution significant hypothesis testing, make know that the population distribution relation of plus correlation are very intimately in this regions. According to the population data from 1990 to 2006, I study the population distribution and population transfer and find that during the 17 years the population center of Beijing transferred to haidian section as a whole, because of the development of haidian section and swarm of the population. Accoding to the standard deviational ellipse, I get the conclusion that the population of Beijing distributes as "northeast to southwest", and the people from other cities settled down in changing, sunyi, daxing, and tongzhou. Therefore, the standard deviational ellipse has the trend of becoming shrunken. However, along with the swarming of the population, the people will inhabitant in further sections and towns. Then forecast that the standard deviational ellipse will show the expanding trend again, covering more area, and the population will present as diffusing condition. |
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