China's Private Enterprise Credit Risk Measurement And Analysis

With the development of our country's finical innovation, the nongovernmentalbusiness enterprises which are called a kind of special economic group appeared. They came from the process of state enterprises innovation, and generate some millionaires. Because these nongovernmental business enterprises have some particular characters, and our country's commercial banks have never used correct ways to evaluate risks, how to evaluate the risks of nongovernmental business enterprises was focused on. It is necessary to establish a kind of system to do it. This is the significance of this thesis.During the course of establishing this kind of system, we have adopted some advanced instruments and analyzing ways, and used VaR (value at risk) as the base of making models. We also have used regression and historical simulation to evaluate the risks existing during the course of commercial banks' operation, upgraded these ways to make them cooperate with China's economic practice, pointed out some indexes and concepts which have practical significance, expanded the academic fields, and connected the normal ways and practical ways together. In this thesis, we have paid more attention to the practical research. In this thesis, we have made some academic creations: we have used some new ways to evaluate the instant value of forward loans and made the credit transferring matrix, so we can evaluate the credit risks precisely.In this thesis, we have analyzed credit risks existing in the process of giving loan to the nongovernmental business enterprises and constructed some models of these risks except the risks which are created by people's action. By using these models, we can evaluate the credit risks of this kind of enterprise. All these can bring much convenience to some work, such as commercial bank managing, central bank controlling and achievement evaluating.