China's Underground Economy, The Scale Of Estimation And Cyclical Analysis

During the period of World War n, Underground economic research, appeared the high tide, and it once more caused the west attention in the 70's of 20 centuries. In the 70's of 20 centuries, many west nations were confused by high unemployment and low increase which was perplexed with the high inflation rate. Arrive the 80's of 20 centuries, the high interest rate and huge government finance in the red become the main problem again. The macro view of actual economic observed can not be expressed by traditional economic theories, which make the economic educational circles be aware of the economics theories may be placed in the crisis.To solute the issue mentioned above, The underground economic research provide another angle of views.Some researchers of west countries bring about some approaches to estimate the underground economy just as fuzzy logic approach ,gross domestic product (GDP) approach ,simple currency ratio method ,transaction method and so on.On this paper,we carry on deep analysis to the intention of under ground economy at first and introduce some ways to estimate underground economy ,then chose the best method to estimate the underground economy in our country according to the real conditions characteristic of our country.For the more, we did the research with the operation of the underground economy in our country on the basis of the result of the proper method modeling the underground economy in our country.In the last section of this paper, the theory of economic cycle was used and made the conclusion that the fluctuation of underground economy is more obviously than registered economy and this kind of operation characteristic of the underground economy has strengthened the fluctuation of the overall economy in our country.