Application Of The Arima Theory And Its Green Agricultural Pricing In A Network Environment

Permeate the mathematics phenomenon of green product make a price in the network environment. The network environment is a simulation of realism, it can make revolutionary effect from the fact of decreasing non-symmetry information, and benefit to draw equilibrium price. The ARIMA model of time series analysis has special superiority researching economic issue. Compare the method which start with model and try to establish new model for numerous and complicated realism price world, it start with the data of realism, and analysis characteristics, search proper means. Especially in the network environment, and ambiguity to the instance of the product. From the facet of producer,can advise them make use of advanced network information technique and scientific means of making a price, which can ensure and layout their product purchase and produce and distribution. Optimize the scheme of produce resource by favorable income, advance the total income, and faithfully resolve the problem of peasantry increase income. From the fact of customers, by network and science make a price, market efficiency competition, the result of Pareto's effect can make common customer enjoy its advantage. In this paper, tentative research on the fact of ARIMA theory and its application in the aspect of green farm produce market price data processing. Primary content include:ARIMA model is a systems engineering involve identify, estimate, diagnose and forecast, it focus on the process of non-stationary time series. Aim at the trait of time series, investigate the different ARIMA patterns , put forward the ARIMA model and forecast and estimate aim at special market. Sum up fluctuate and error arose by market factors, put forward simple method and application to wipe off yawp based on the ARIMA difference method.In the demonstration phase, use ARIMA theory and data characteristic between August nineteen ninety nine and October two thousands and three, start with cabbage price in Shanghai Caoan market, and then extend to system of nineteen produces average price as a main line. Discuss particularly in network environment, by the means of electric commerce, guidance and advice using interrelated theory of network economics and classical viewpoint of econometrics. By way of adapt the need of information society, producer how to make use of Internet resource to improve and advance its competition station. Integrate the aspects of econometrics, network economics, electric commerce frame and network, bring forward the method of price research in network environment.Conclude several basic issue in ARIMA application, discover the self- comparability and some lasting trend in farther layout make a price in green farm produce market, make forecast and compare demonstration analysis. In the end the paper study and analysis the development trend of ARIMA theory——space model's accurately forecast, and have brief introduction to the VAR method of network green farm produce make a price, also explain in the fact of shortage.