| Since 1990s,Bullwhip Effect, which is a main obstacle in supply chain take more and more, people's attention. It is a very important problem in supply chain management that how to overcome Bullwhip Effect. So we should strengthen the research about Bullwhip Effect and overcome its mischief to create a positive condition for the using of modern management method. Now there is too much research about the cause of Bullwhip Effect. Many scholars bring forward their own standpoints. In conclusion, it is affected by the following four factors: demand estimate, batch order, short gambling, and price fluctuation. But, these researches about how to restrain the four factors are not deep enough. Especially, when certain factors are restrained in supply chain there are not meticulous research about Bullwhip Effect and its mischief. The other limitation about these articles is only having some describe in words and without necessary quantity analysis. And they didn't explain which factors are more important in causing Bullwhip Effect. There are a little quantity analysis and lack of necessary proof. The quantity analysis is almost nothing. So in this text I have some research in these aspects. I hope I can do some contribution in the related theory and give some help in overcoming Bullwhip Effect. The main tools are used including: supply chain theory, management theory, data analysis, figure analysis, counting by procedures and etc. This text abstracts the "beer countermeasure experiment" to functions and adds a series of parameters and variables to it including the value about really demand of native market, the really order and the parameter about degree of short-game. It draws into soft product to decide the turnout of the manufacturer and get a model. The model includes the Arrival, Sell, Order, and Stock of the dealer, the Arrival, Consignment, Order, Stock and Non-consignment of the wholesaler, the Turnout, Consignment, Stock and Non-consignment of the manufacturer. In this text I studied the standard of evaluating Bullwhip Effect and its mischief. I proved that of Bullwhip Effect and the mischief Bullwhip Effect is not synchronization from function and data. It's more meaningful to evaluate the mischief of Bullwhip Effect than the Bullwhip Effect. So I bring forward a synthetically standard of evaluating Bullwhip Effect by order variation and other parameters. And I emphasize the analysis to the mischief and how to weaken it. Accordingly, in this text I suppose that the manufacturer take a traditional model, which is in the condition of rigidity, and I restrain 25% of demand estimate, 50% of short gambling, 75% of batch order individually. At the same time, I evaluate the effect in weakening the impact of Bullwhip Effect by using this standard. I bring forward a function frame originally, which is based on the famous beer countermeasure experiment. At that time (1980s), rigidity producing measure is widely used, so the simulation system takes rigidity production as unique measure. But, consider coming of marketing economic, enterprise emphasis the pliability production. Consequently, in this test I discuss the condition of restrain the mischief of Bullwhip Effect when manufacturers take pliability measure.Then, I analyze the effects of restrain the three factors individually when manufacturers take pliability measure. And I have proved that in certain condition batch order is the main factor of causing Bullwhip Effect and draw some other conclusions.At last, his article draws some different distribution mechanisms into the functions frame used for the research of Bullwhip Effect in SCM and enlarges the conditions of hypotheses about the scale of enterprise. According to the different assign grade and amount of order, this thesis divides the retailers into nine types and quantitatively research the affects of Certain- assign mechanism, Proportion- assign mechanism, Linear- assign mechanism, and even- assign mechanism, in the link of retail, wholesale and predictor. At last, it... |
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