| In the past few years, financial crises or banking crises happened frequently in western countries, such as American banking crisis in the 1980's Japanese financial crisis in the 1990's and Southeastern Asian financial crisis, which all led to serious and astonishing results. Among these crises, a common characteristic is that the influence of real estate mortgage risk played a key role, especially in the Japanese financial crisis. Therefore, this thesis is mainly focused on this obvious characteristic.By analyzing the risk of real estate mortgage loan, the thesis gives some suggestions on how to manage or prevent it. However, my research is not solely focused on the risk itself, but also carried out in the background of macro-economic cycle movement. So I particularly pay attention to changing of the risk during economic cycle.The topic of this thesis is a new one relatively, so it is important not only on the aspect of theory but also on the aspect of reality. Firstly, from the view of theory, we can make the relation between the risk of the real estate mortgage loan and economic cycle, which fills the gaps in the theory field. Secondly, through the research mentioned above, we can understand deeply the nature of the real estate mortgage loan and economic cycle respectively. Thirdly, we can also make it better to understand and explain the development of banking crises or financial crises. Lastly, from the point of theory put into practice, the result of above research is instructive to manage and protect the risk of real estate mortgage loan during the periodic wave of economy. As for the construction of this thesis, it consists of the following five chapters: basic concepts, the general principle of the effect of economic cycle on real estate mortgage risk, an analysis onthe case of Japan, the actual condition of China, management on real estate mortgage risk loan during economic cycle. Specifically, the main points of each chapter are elaborated as follows:The first chapter of this paper is mainly about the introduction, definition and preliminary research of the three fundamental concepts concerned in the paper. The three fundamental concepts are: economic cycle, real estate mortgage loan and real estate mortgage risk. Through a great number of theoretic research and positive demonstration, now it has been confirmed that economic cycle is the necessary consequence and one of the basic characteristics of social mass production and market economy. Recently there is an important phenomenon in economic development of western countries that the scale and proportion of real estate mortgage loan are on increasing, in some countries, the proportion of this kind of loan has surpassed that of loan to manufacture. So that the real estate mortgage risk is accumulating with this condition. Therefore, the next is the core concept of this paper: real estate mortgage risk. Through elementary analysis, it is found that it is an important kind of high-level financial risk, which consists of debtor 's risk, mortgage risk, loan institution's risk, environment risk and other risk.The second chapter of this thesis is theoretical analysis of economic cycle's effect on real estate mortgage risk, that is the emphasis of this paper. Before getting into the discussion of the basic mechanism of the effect, The thesis gives an introduction of the discussion at first, then makes a thorough analysis of the mortgage risk and mentions the mortgage risk on micro- and macro-scope. The next, the paper examines the relationship among the risk factors and conclude that the main risk factors are debtor 's risk and mortgage risk, moreover, the former and the latter are respectively the first and second risk. Thereafter, the paper studies the influence factors of real estate mortgage risk and draw a conclusion that the key factor is the real estate price, considering the keyeffect of real estate price on real estate mortgage risk. Then the paper construct the discussion of the mechanism of economic cycle's influe... |
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