| Technology innovation investment is a kind of investments with high risk. Traditional DCF (discount cash flow) method can't catch the uncertainty in different stages of R&D (research and development) projects, but real options approach with similar characteristics of financial options can do , and can evaluate properly the flexibility value of R&D projects. However, there are many difficulties in the application of real options , therefore, this paper investigates deeply valuation methodology of real options in the technology innovation projects.First, appraise the concept and application of real options as a whole,and point out the direction of study .Second, go deep into investigate the frame and calculate method of real options, apply formulation of Gesk, Black-Scholes Carr and Margrabe to a instance ,and compare the results of different formulations. Make use of binominal lattice^ finite difference and monte carlo to one instance.This paper suggests that the operable procedure and method Copeland and Antikarov provided with Monte carlo simulation and binominal lattice is a best way.Third, evaluate MMDS (Multipoint Microwave Distribute System) project of Youli company in material operable procedure and method .Finally,three case of Technology innovation investments is reconstruct ,and the methods used in the cases is appraised. |
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