Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Model With The Analytical

Expecting is a fundamental behavior mode when people take economic action. Studying public expectation is helpful to understand people's behavior rules. The impact of information and knowledge on the economy is becoming more and more strong, so it's even more important to make a research on the expectation theory. The great evolution that the expectation theory run to the rational expectation makes the economic analytical means break through old restricts.With nowadays development of the information society, people's expectation is tending to be more rational. The focus of this paper is to discuss the traits of the economic model which involves people's rational expectation during it is getting to be more perfect, and discuss the policy for the Chinese government to take.Chapter 1: here we introduce the progress course of expectation theory, analyze the different information base and form mechanism of the rational expectation compared with other expectation theories, and the recent advance of rational expectation theory.Chapter 2: a monetary macro-econometrics model is established on the foundation of the statistic character of rational expectation. By using the practical target data of China's macroeconomics the parameters are estimated. This indicates that China's economy has taken on certain rational character. So, the government should take public expectation into account when determining economic policy.Chapter 3: a classic model about rational expectation is given at first. The analyzing conclusion is the nullity of government's measure. But China's practice misfits the hypothetical terms, therefore, we altered the model and found the measure is valid for particular environment. In addition, the government is inclined to be time inconsistent when it puts policy in practice. By analyzing the policy result when there exists rational expectation, we obtain that government should perform steady measures to stabilize public expectation and national economy that is the eventual aim of the policy.Chapter 4: basing on the character of rational expectation we establish a macroeconomic model described by two-person non-cooperative dynamic game and interfered by stochastic noise. By introducing Nash equilibrium problem we convert the model, and get its state feedback Nash equilibrium solutions by applying related theories and methods. Furthermore simulation and calculation is carried out, the results proved the steady policy.Chapter 5: a concrete analysis is made for China's economic situation, and many aspects concerned when government makes policy to activate Chinese economy are enumerated.