Commercial Bank Credit Industry Risk Measurement Methods And Their Empirical Research

The credit risk is the main risk of commercial banks over the years, but domestic commercial banks only pay attention to the credit companies in the current credit risk assessment. In other words, they just put their focus on the credit companies in their credit risk assessment and quantification, didn't consider the industry risks. Therefore, developing practical industry credit policy through industry analysis and forecasting has becoming an important part to commercial banks'credit risk management.This paper chose the credit industry risks of commercial banks as research object. Firstly, analyzed the impact of industry risk factors in detail and divided the industry risk factors into two types-qualitative factors and quantitative factors, then, made an empirical study on how to measuring industry risk by using Logit Model, Finally, proposed some suggestions on reducing industry risk of Commercial Bank of China. The thesis is divided into five parts: the first part mainly elaborates the background and significance of this paper, the domestic and foreign literature summary, the research method and the main content, as well as the innovation of this paper; the second part first analyses and summarizes the main factors that affect the industry risk, divided them into two types-qualitative factors and quantitative factors, then, selected indicators from quantitative factors and constructed a system of indicators for the next chapter of the empirical study, finally, after comparing related model and methods about risks measurement, selected the appropriate model-Logit Model to measure the industry risk in credit; the third part is the empirical research of this paper, it selected 33 industries as its study object, measured the risks of the 33 industries by using Logit Model; the forth part discussed the results of the empirical research and proposed some suggestions on reducing industry risk of Commercial Bank of China; the fifth part is the conclusion part, it concluded the results of this paper first, then, analyzed the limitations of this paper and pointed the further research. The empirical research of this paper shows that it is feasible to measure industry risk by Logit Model in credit risk management of commercial bank, the metrical results are satisfactory.