| Exchange rate was once considered a purely proprietary research in the field of economics, people tried to explore the various economic measures of the decision of the exchange rate and the most appropriate exchange rate system. However just from the macroeconomic and financial variables point of view , these problems has not always been unanimously approved conclusions. This is because the real exchange rate formation system is not only the result of the economic dimension, but also a mix of more interest, political factors. In essence, although a country's exchange rate is decided by the currency price ratio between countries, in reality it is more influenced by domestic interest groups and other factors .Economics is no doubt the foundation of policy choices, the reality of the exchange rate system is the final result of economic, political equilibrium game。As a result, non-neutral features of exchange rate policy is at a glance. We can even say that exchange rate is a matter of sovereign interests of international political economy basically.so is China's policy.With the deepening of globalization, China's exchange rate is increasingly becoming one of the core issues being concerned. Let's have a look at RMB exchange rate experience and it will help us understand the role of non-objective factors in Realistic choice of exchange rate regime better. RMB exchange rate remained unchanged in 1997 was greatly appreciated all over the world, however it was criticized 5 years later. As the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism implemented in 2005 the exchange rate crisis has ended. After five years, the RMB exchange rate has returned to public view, "currency manipulation" bounced back.Economists reaserch for the way of RMB exchange rate with principle of economics They point out their opinions whether from trade or from the domestic economic developments. However, positive economics is not followed with the standard economics, the realistic choice of the RMB exchange rate is not the same as the optimal choice .Pure economics is apparently powerless to deal with complex and volatile exchange rate questions, it is difficult to clarify the complicated clues. With the external pressure and internal factors, the control of the government about Chinese exchange rate policy can't be as before.However compared with weak capacity the strong government power decide it must play the key role in the exchange rate system reform.In order to answer the exchange rate questions in reality better, The choice of exchange rate regime is seen as one kind of political process, different interest groups have different preferences about the exchange rate system, the interests Groups who have their own political and economic objectives will result in the final choice of the exchange rate system.Through the establishment of empirical econometric model and empirical analysis we attempts to analyze exchange rate policy and discuss the deep reasons behind the choice of RMB exchange rate by political economy paradigm:RMB exchange rate system reform is the common result of various forces: both China and international; not only economies but also political. For this reason we have to pay more arduous efforts to resolve the RMB exchange rate issue but also a more reliable strategy.The article focus in the issue about RMB appreciation and put forward the writer's view. The problem should be based primarily on their own national interests and maximize judged by the external situation .We shouldn't be care about others too much. Finally the writer proposed countermeasures about choosing the future path of the RMB exchange rate .The paper is divided into introduction and text. In the introductory section, this paper describes the background and significance of the topic, introduces the path of thinking and research methods. The text is divided into seven chapters, can be seen as three parts: one is as part of the preparation,including the basic theory (chapter 2) and the source of problem (chapter 3), Horizontal and vertical reference to the exchange rate case is also presented in this section (Chapter 3).The second part is the practical application of RMB exchange rate regime, the influence of the domestic and international factors (take the United States for example) is for political and economic analysis (chapter4) and use the method of econometrics and empirical on some important factors to verify (chapter 5,chapter 6).Finally it's the part of practical significance, including the explanation of viewpoint and judgement about the current RMB exchange rate and policy suggestions (chapter7) and point out the main results of this paper and its role, not only illustrate the weaknesses in order to discuss the issue further ,but also give a clear direction for future research. (chapter8). |
