China's Urban Housing Prices Of Goods Factors: Model And Applications

In recent years, substantial growth in real estate prices all over the country has triggered a variety of arguments. In 2009, house prices again unexpectedly rocketed up. The trend of house prices in 2010 therefore becomes a focal issue that attracts the most attention. What on earth is the current level of housing prices? How can we ensure the healthy development of the real estate industry? It has not only theoretical values but also practical significance to analyze factors which affect house prices.The full text is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 illustrates the research approach, theoretical foundation and practical significance of this paper. This chapter also systematically reviews the research findings on the influence factors of house prices by other scholars both at home and abroad. Chapter 2 describes the formation mechanism of house prices including Price of Production Theory, Supply and Demand Theory and Marginal Utility Theory. It also makes evaluation and analysis on the three kinds of theories based on whether it can explain the real housing prices. Chapter 3 tries to establish a model of house prices affecting factors from macro to micro-micro. Chapter 4, by using data, attempts to test these affecting factors from macro to micro-micro included in the model. It also analyzes the influence degree of each factor on house prices. Using the model, Chapter 5 empirically analyzes and evaluates the current house price level (in Shenzhen, for example). Chapter 6 summarizes this paper and makes recommendations on how to develop the current real estate industry healthily and stably.Conclusions of this article and innovation points:Firstly, this paper for the first time systematically built a theoretical model of house prices affecting factors from macro to micro-micro. Furthermore, by using relevant analytical methods and data comparison, the theoretical model was empirically tested.Secondly, this paper proposed for the first time that in the developed cities, the developing level of the economy and the synthesized competitiveness of a city are the major factors that affect the integral level of the city's house prices. However, in developing cities, the major influence factor of house price level is the production cost of the house.Thirdly, by using theories mentioned and the model established in this article, this paper puts forward its judgment on the focal issue----ouse prices as paid greatest attention to (Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen for example):Beijing and Shanghai's house prices exist obvious "bubble"; the foam of Shenzhen's house prices is not obvious; Guangzhou's house prices is fair. The future price trend:Beijing and Shanghai's house prices will not necessarily fall down even if only fine-tuning, but it is short of upside momentum in the next 2-3 years; Shenzhen, the current price bubble is not obvious, but the upside power is limited in 2010; Guangzhou's house price in 2010 will increase as incomes rise.Lastly, evaluation of house price in China can not simply copy the international practice. We can not because that Housing Price-to-Income Ratios of many cities in China are over the 3-6 times of the international warning line, or rent-to-selling ratios have exceeded 1:300 of the international warning level (such as:Beijing Shanghai are 1:500, Shenzhen is between 1:400～480), serious property bubble in China at present, and the future house prices will certainly fall. China currently has a special situation and it needs a concrete analysis of specific situations.