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China's Stock Market Is Excessive Volatility In The Empirical Study Of Influencing Factors

Posted on:2010-02-13Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2199360278480165Subject:Population, resource and environmental economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Stock market volatility is a normal phenomenon, with the bias, random, skip, and cyclical, as well as psychological characteristics of the population. China's stock market has begun to take shape, after nearly two decades of development, but the stock market with foreign countries compared to mature, the share price was intense and frequent fluctuations is a significant feature in the development process of China's stock market. It is undeniable that the moderate price fluctuations played a positive role on the promotion of China's rapid development in the early stock market. But we should see the stock price volatility arising from the negative effects. The volatility of the stock market will undoubtedly distort the price mechanism, so that shares can not only truly reflect the intrinsic value of listed companies, a serious obstacle to the stock market to optimize the allocation of resources to this function effectively, but also hinder the further development of China's stock market. That is why my government is conscious implementation of policy interventions on the stock market.These policy interventions aim at the stock market and try to control the volatility of the stock market to make it in the framework of the government expects to run. However, the government's macro-policy interventions will be increased to some extent, the volatility of stock prices. Therefore, comprehensive study of the impact of fluctuations in the stock has a very important factor in the theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, the general use of statistical methods and modern methods of financial econometrics research on the impact of factors,drawing on financial theory of asset price fluctuations in the theory of research results combined with the development of China's actual situation in the stock market from both theoretical and empirical easy-to-digest of the China's stock market volatility. In this paper, the specific content and conclusions of the study are summarized as follows:(1) Introduce national and international relevant theory of influencing factors in the stock market, and then combined the theory with the actual volatility of our stock market characteristics, in order to find the impact of China's stock market volatility factor.(2) Through the event study investigated the macro policies and major national and international events over the stock market fluctuations. The results show that China's stock market on the policies and the sensitivity of a major event has a strong market for news with the expected effects,the market's major policies and events of the existence of a longer period of time and extent of the delay in response deeper. Therefore, the macro-policy changes and the cumulative impact of a major event is the major factor in the stock market volatility.(3) Correlation analysis between the plate and the results of cointegration test to study the linkage effects between the plate and the stock market fluctuations in the relationship.The results show that China's stock market fluctuations in the level of the overall size and strength of plate effect of a strong positive correlation. Therefore, the plate can be used as study effects of fluctuations in the level of China's stock market indicators.The results show that the volatility of our stock market mainly by macroeconomic policies and events caused by the cumulative effect. Plate in the market linked to the performance of the form. Government departments should be cautious, therefore in the stock market a timely introduction of effective policy intervention take effective measures in time in the face of the major national and international events, in order to reduce market impact of shock frequency and amplitude to enhance market stability.
Keywords/Search Tags:excessive fluctuations, macroeconomic policy, a major event, plate effect
PDF Full Text Request
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