Huaihua Cigarette Demand Forecasting Based On Combination Forecasting Analysis

In the 21st century, China's market economy has to actively integrate into the globalization of economies. Accession to the WTO, approved the "Framework Convention on Tobacco Control," issued the "anti-monopoly law," which have marked China's socialist market economy matures. "China's tobacco", deeply imprinted with the planned economy, was established in the 1980s. With the earth-shaking changes in China's economic environment, the enterprise has felt the pressures, brought by market economy, and is soberly realizing the significance of the accurate prediction of cigarette demand.It begins with the evolution, status and direction of development of the prediction theory in the paper. Huaihua market is made as the entry point to predict cigarette demand by the quantitative forecasting method. The combination forecasting is applied to areas of cigarette forecast in the paper, which is expected to do benefit to the research of cigarette demand forecast.First, with a brief review of the forecast of the development process, it analyses the differences and links between with qualitative prediction and quantitative forecast, and recalls the status and trends of combined forecasting at home and abroad. While looking over the status and weak points of cigarette demand forecast in China, it discovers why the tobacco business pay urgent attention to the cigarette market. It is the first time to introduce the combination of forecast to cigarette demand forecast in China.Second, after the analysis of the characteristics of China's tobacco monopoly system, it uncovers in depth the characteristics of the cigarette market and the cigarette consumer in Huaihua. Three methods of prediction -- trend extrapolation, time series decomposition and multiple regression -- are elected to analyze historical data of cigarette demand in Huaihua and make respectively predictions of Huaihua cigarette demand in 2008.Finally, on this basis of the forecast by the three methods, the superior prediction is obtained by the combination of the forecast. Through empirical research shows that the combination of forecasts, in the cigarette demand forecast, can effectively reduce errors and improve accuracy. At the same time, with using the results predicted, it analyzes the elasticity of demand for cigarette, such as income elasticity and price elasticity, and brings up advice about the marketing of cigarette and forecasting of cigarette demand.