Rmb Real Exchange Rate And Correlation Analysis Of The Yangtze River Delta, The International Trade Balance

Since 1990s, encouraged by the local government policy of export-oriented, the Yangtze River Delta has become one of the most energetic regions in China's export-oriented economy. It's general economic output accounted for 21.78% of that of china, import and export, 36.13% and the ratio of dependence on Foreign Trade reached 23.39%Real Exchange Rate (RER) is an important factor affecting china's international trade, as to that of the Yangtze River Delta, which has huge export &import trade and the high ratio of dependence on Foreign Trade, the RER accounts much.As a result of this, the study of the relation between the RER and the international trade of the Yangtze River Delta seems much important.This paper consists five parts.The first part introduces the theories about the impact of RER on foreign trade, especially the Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-curve Effect. The second part introduces the basic conditions of The Delta's foreign trade, including the scope, the main trade parteners and the ratio of dependence on foreign trade. The third part conducts theoretical analysis between the RER and the international trade, laying the foundation for the empirical analysis. The empirical analysis depending on econometrics and the Cointegration Test is used in the fourth part and the following conclusions can be reached: the RER affects little to the foreign trade in the short term, but they have a long-term equilibrium relationship. In the last part, according to the result of the empirical analysis, it explains the reason why the RER has little effet on foreign trade, and offers appropriate policy recommendations for coping with the appreciation of the RMB.