China's Closed-end Fund Managers Are Overconfident Empirical Research

Since the new fund has been released in 1998, lots of empirical research shows that a large number of funds failed to play a "financial expert" role. So the non-rational behavior of fund managers is concerned by investors and experts. The perspective of behavioral finance shows that the over-confidence is an important psychological factor to invest. This paper uses the theory of over-confidence to research above-mentioned problem.Firstly, the paper analyzes the cause of over-confidence, sums up the current study of over-confidence. Secondly, the paper summarizes the development of fund industry in China. Then the paper uses statistical methods to analysis the over-confidence of the fund manager. The result shows that the phenomenon of over-confidence exits. Subsequently, the paper discusses the dynamic development process of over-confidence. On the basis of above research, we discus the over-confidence impacts the risks and benefits of the fund.On the basis of the above study, this paper gives some relevant proposals to consummate the evaluation system of fund managers and the regulatory mechanism of the fund in China.