Return To The Study Of China's Stock Bubble Of The Measure And Its Rational Value

The massive evidence indicated that, the stock market price can deviate its foundation value, thus produces " the bubble". Overseas may trace to the stock market froth theory research to the 20th century 60's. Although our country Stock market's development history still was short, but the stock market showed high speculative and the stock price froth characteristic became actually puzzles one of chief problems that obstacles our country's stock market sustainable development. Therefore, whether the froth existed and how the froth degree, and the analysis to the stock market were regarding the policy making, and it had important influence to the monetary system reform. On the other hand, because the stock price froth will be disillusioned has the significant destructive influence to the financial system and even the national economy, therefore, will also become the stock price froth research regarding the stock price froth rational value homing instinct research the important subject.This article first uses the massive market data and the target, inspected China stock market's speculation and the froth characteristics. Then examined and revises after the F-O model to carry on the measure to our country's stock price froth using the duration dependence. Thus the author synthesized two aspects to obtain our country Stock market had the stock price froth the conclusion. In addition, this article has also studied our country stock price froth rational value homing instinct question, in the inspection mass data, in the information foundation, the method which unifies using the model and the real diagnosis examination, obtained our country stock market to have certain degree the rational value return nature conclusion.