| Estimating potential output accurately and calculating output gap is the basis for policymakers identify macroeconomic situations and the start point to make properly macroeconomic policy.In this article, we discuss the potential output theory at the beginning, the current situations of our country's economic development and main approaches to estimate potential output. Based on the sphere of application of all approaches to estimate potential output and its' advantages and disadvantages, considering the character in different stages, we use three factors -theory, methods, fact, to dividend the estimate of china to two stages-1952～1992,1992～2006. The first stage take H-P filter approach, the other take production function approach to Estimate potential output. The reason is that before 1990s, the economy of our country is with a relatively small scale, lower development speed, supply constraint character. Except that, because national statistical systems of China haven't built up completely, many accurate data needed by production function approach are not accusable. So it's a wise choice to take H-P filter approach.But during the period of 1992 to 2006, our country have set up socialist market economy. The enterprise become the real market body to participate in producing. The pattern of manufacturing turns to demand constraint from supply constraint. And because the data now is relative complete, it can satisfy the accurate demand of production function approach. So in this period, we take production function approach to Estimate potential output and output gap.After that we use the model of this approach to divide the pull factors of economic growth. Based on the study, we analyze the factor which can prompt economic growth in the long run., so that we can get good advice to keep potential output develop sustainable. In order to make the approach study of potential output further, I finished this paper. Of course, I think it's helpful to make macroeconomic policy. |
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