| City is the center of an area's economy development, which plays focal effects on the area planning. It should expand the city of bigger scale as much as possible at the aim to solely developing powerful and prosperous cities. However, broadening the scope is accompanied with a serious of problems, such as traffic jam, in short of housing, environmental pollutions, and so on. So, it is actual and significant problem that how to scientifically plan the developmental strategy of the satellite town real estate and how to deal with the relationship between the downtown and the satellite town when a city expands to certain scale. The thesis intends to make theoretic analysis and positive research fully and thoroughly combining with the actual condition of the whole Dalian city and its satellite town, in the hope of bringing forward practicable suggestions for rational planning of the development between the downtown real estate market and the satellite town real estate market.Starting from the basic concepts of the satellite town and real estate economy, there are some correlative theories in this part. In the second part, it mainly analyzes the present situation and the credit condition under the background of the real estate market of Dalian. The research concludes real estate investment, house sales, prices and vacancy rate, and the conclusion is that the satellite town real estate market grows abundantly. Following, the next part is the analysis of the vigorous rise of real estate market.Next part is the forecast of the satellite town real estate market supply and demand. According to the analysis of the market sale of Dalian's satellite town, the thesis puts to use the gray MOKV-process forecasting model and moving average method to forecast the future of the satellite town real estate market, and draws the conclusion that the situation turns from buyers over presently to sellers over in the next five years. Following, the thesis sets up a model to quantify the risk and also points out the possibility to turn heat. Also, suggestions are made out that macro-control should be appropriate in avoidance of real estate development excessively.Considering the future development of the satellite town real estate market of Dalian, suggestions are brought up that it should harmoniously plan and control the downtown and the satellite town real estate market of Dalian, and build up investigation and supervision system to maturity the real estate market system.The thesis researches the situation of the satellite town real estate market of Dalian basing on relevant theories. Besides describing the existing condition of the real estate market, the thesis also pays attention to the essence behind the phenomenon and the intrinsic reason. Therefore, on organizing the material, it lays particular stress on marshaling and coordinating the data. Furthermore, the thesis predicts and analyzes the development of the satellite town real estate market of Dalian scientifically by using idiographic indexes and statistical data.The thesis performs systematic and deep demonstration and analysis about satellite town real estate market of Dalian, expecting that it is worth referencing for the government and some departments' decision and administration. |
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