China's Foreign Exchange Reserves, Moderate-scale Empirical Analysis

From the reform of foreign exchange administration system FEAS of China in 1994, Chinese foreign reserve increases quickly. Up to the end of 2006 year, the reserve has come to 1066.3 billion dollars, and annual growth rate has come to 38.4 percent. Continuous increasing reserve produce great effect on Chinese economy; the reserve problem has become a hot issue in our country's economy research, and determination of optimal scale is the important basis of reserve allocation, management and control, so it is also need mostly to resolve. This paper try to discuss reserve problem's solution and all content is expanded around determination of reserve scale.This paper divides into six chapter: chapter one, overview developing process and main idea of reserve theory, the present situation of Chinese foreign reserve and the domestic academician's study work, then present research idea and method; chapter two, analyze foreign exchange reserve qualitatively, get the supplying and demanding factors and how factors affect reserve; chapter three, analyzes foreign exchange reserve quantitatively, mainly generalize the traditional quantitative analysis model; Chapter four, which is based on chapter three, analyze our national reserve's optimal scale empirically and find out that optimal reserve model existed is not suit to our country's actual condition; chapter five, take Co-integration theory and analysis method of dynamic econometric to build Chinese foreign exchange reserve's Co-integration model and error correct model, analysis the relation between reserve and related Variables in imbalanced angle, and overcome the spurious regression of simply linear regression and information miss of difference regression equation; chapter six, got conclusion that our national foreign exchange reserve is morn than that demand and then make some corresponding policies suggestion.The main works in this paper: select the data from 1985 to 2005 as sample, and build a dynamic adjustment model and co-integration model in imbalanced angle; extended traditional reserve ration analysis method through simply accumulate and international comparison; adopt static and dynamic analyses method, and select non-transformed index as explanatory variables, which can strength the explanatory; The empirical research showed that, the effect size Of explaining variable to reserve is ranked as export value, import value, FDI, fluctuation of International Payments, especially, the effect intension of export on foreign exchange reserve is 2.21 times of import value, 5.81 times of FDI, 23.16 times of fluctuation of international payments. Base on above, the first step of decreasing reserve is controlling export, and then increasing investment, the last is increasing import value.