China National Social Security Fund Balance

In 1997, the governments enacted and bring it into effect. This decision established a new policy about endowment insurance of china. But this new policy faced great challenge.First, the trend that the old who have retired become more and more in population will influence the payment ability of the basic policy. Second, because the new policy introduced into personal account which did not exist before, so there is great debt which si recessive. At the same time, the new personal accounts also faced longevity risk and invest risk. How to resolve this problem is the key that the new policy can get successful.In 2000, China has set up "national social security fund" which is aim to solve the problem. This text aim to study that how can "national social security fund" solve the problem with the most economic way and the least risk way.To study the obligatory accumulation of "national social security fund", I must have some knowledge about the deficit of the new endowment insurance. So, this text modeled the personal account and social whole old plan respectively. The main idea for modeling is to weigh the asset size which should be accumulative in the endowment insurance system.to insuring the scheming life level of old man. The main theory for modeling is actuarial theory. At some given assumption, at 2004, the debt about personal account is 3760 billions yuan; the deficit about social whole old plan is 1240 billions yuan.To insure the finance policy and invest policy of "national social security fund", considering the risk hating characteristic of "national social security fund", this text gives five solutions at given acceptable lowest yield for asset allocation and financing using Mmrkowitz model with VAR restriction.This text integrates the deficit of basic endowment insurance and the governance of "national social security" innovative and points out that the deficit is not a invariable constant. The deficit changes as invest policy of "national social security" and basic endowment insurance changes. In order to solve the problem of Chinese endowment insurance we must consider the government ability to pay, invest policy of"national social security fund"and the basic endowment insurance.Another innovation is that at given assume, this text weighs the influence to deficit of increasing spead changes of cover rate of basic endowment insurance. This conclution can be a foundation to decide the cover rate.