China's Agricultural Futures Market Efficiency Study

Futures market is one of the most efficient transaction institutions in the history, which is known for its function of hedge and diminishing risk. However, futures market itself doesn't bring about the greatly efficiency. On another way, the function of the futures is not only based on the futures institution but also on its surroundings such as finance market, cash market etc. In China, the agricultural commodity futures market was first established. As we know, the early researches on the futures concentrated on the feasibility of founding the futures market in China. I think the most important thing at present is how to promote its efficiency, and this is the most important issue.In first part, history research of the agricultural product futures market efficiency was introduced, and then, the futures market was outlined briefly, including its birth, development history and the basic situation.In second part, the agricultural product futures market was analyzed. First, Chinese agricultural product futures market plays an important role in agriculture management. Then, introduced Dalian commodity exchange's soybean contract and Zhengzhou commodity exchange's wheat contract, including correlation between the two kinds of varieties futures market price and corresponding spot price, and the two kinds of futures market basic function, as well as the distance between our country futures market and international mature futures market.Third part: explained the meaning of the futures market efficiency, and then proposed system and the level of the futures market efficiency as well as its inherent relationship. In the end, the EMH was illuminated in details. Based on the EMH, empirical analysis of the agricultural commodity futures (soybean and wheat) market efficiency of China was made.