| In the past decades, China's stock market experienced a fast development period. Many corporations survived and developed because of appropriate operations, while some of them are in difficult situation. Now China has joined WTO, corporations are facing a more competitive environment and explored to more risks. How to test and forecast the financial risks of corporations becomes an important component of the risk management of enterprises. Hence, it is necessary for enterprises to establish an effective and accurate risk forewarning system.There are five chapters in this thesis. In the first three chapters, financial risks and financial forewarning system are introduced in detail and some important theories are reviewed. Positive analysis method is used in the fourth and fifth chapters and accounting data of 86 listed companies (including 43 risky companies and 43 normal companies) are collected as samples. After choosing 26 indexes according to the specific situation of China, linear regression model, discriminant model, logistic regression model and factors analysis model are introduced to establish models separately. The results show that logistic model performs better than the other three. In general, the models in this thesis are acceptable and can be used in all industries. |
