Correlation Analysis Of Real Estate Cyclical Fluctuation And Foam In China

Real estate industry is the leading and supporting industry of the national economic; the healthy development of it is foundation of whole economic. Since implementation of the reform and opening-up policy, especially from housing system reform, the real estate industry develops extremely rapid. The rapidly development of real estate industry brings the strong dynamic power to the development of economic , in the contrast, the unhealthy real estate industry also set a lot blocks which stop the development if economic.Just like macro economy cycle wave, there is a certain cyclical fluctuation on Real estate industry. Without considering of the long term developing tendency, there must be a period of expanding or extracting in a certain extent.That is cyclical fluctuation. But when real estate development deviates from the macro economy and the estate price is up to an extremely high level, the following is the foam of real estate industry. As for the bad impact generated by the cyclical fluctuation of estate industry and foam of it, this paper is aim to build a preventive system to ensure the healthy developing of estate industry by the foundation of estate industry cycle wave and taking the connect between and estate cycle wave and foam as the breakthroughThis paper bases on macro economy theory and real estate finance theory. Taking a reference on the current theory of real estate industry cycle wave and foam in the worldwide, this paper is to do an analysis on the real estate industry cycle and foam in China particular situation under method of timing the global principal component analysis, taking the data from 1997 to 2008, to do research via correlativity analyzing. On the basis of Correlativity Analyzing on the cycle wave and foam of real estate industry , this paper is aim to build an preventive alert system to instruct the healthy developing of Chinese real estate industry , expecting to bring some contribution to it .